Weather experts predict a ‘close to normal’ season, with 5 to 9 typhoons possible
The US National Hurricane Center serves as WMO’s regional Special Weather station, based in Miami, Florida.
There is a 40 percent chance of near-normal weather, a 30 percent chance of “fair-normal weather,” and a 30 percent chance of normal weather, according to forecasts from the National Weather Service. .
The hurricane season covers the Atlantic region, including the Caribbean, the Gulf of Mexico and the US east coast, running from 1 June to 30 November.
NOAA forecasts between 12 and 17 total named storms, which means winds of less than 63 kilometers per hour, or 39 miles per hour.
Up to four hurricanes
Among the potential hurricanes, he predicted one to four “major hurricanes” – categories three to five – with winds of less than 178kmh, or 111mph.
The WMO says NOAA has “a 70 percent confidence in these ranges.”
“It is expected that it is less active than in recent years, due to competing forces – some of which reduce storm development and some of which make it possible to drive this year’s general forecast for the normal-season, according to NOAA”, WMO reported in press. released
The agency reminds, however, that it is accepted just one a major hurricane landing to set years of growth and development back.
Statistics presented to the ongoing World Climate Conference show how Small Island Developing States suffer disproportionately in terms of both economic impact and human cost.
Early warning is mandatory
For example, Hurricane Maria in 2017, devastated the Caribbean island nation of Dominica, a an astonishing 800 per cent of its Gross Domestic Product.
The WMO states that “Between 1970 and 2021 severe tropical storms (the generic term which includes hurricanes) were the main cause of human and economic losses reported worldwide, accounting for more than 2,000 disasters ,” WMO said.
However, the death toll from deadly hurricanes has fallen from around 350,000 in the 1970s to less than 20,000 in 2010-2019. Economic losses reported in 2010-2019 were $573.2 billion.
‘The great killers’
“Tropical storms are major killers as well A hurricane can reverse years of economic growth. Mortality has fallen dramatically thanks to improvements in prediction, warning and disaster risk reduction. But we can do even better,” said WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas.
“The UN Early Warnings for All initiative seeks to ensure that everyone has access to warnings of life-threatening winds, typhoons and rainfall over the next five years, especially in Small Island Developing States which are in the face of climate change,” said.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts near-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic for the 2023 season.
Name that storm
The average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three hurricanes.
In total, the Atlantic hurricane season in 2022 produced 14 named storms, of which eight were hurricanes and two were major hurricanes (Ian and Fiona). Both 2020 and 2021 were so busy that the usual list of rotating names was exhausted.
After three hurricane seasons with La Niña, there is a high potential for El Nino to develop this summer, which could reduce Atlantic hurricane activity. The potential impact of El Nino on storm development may be offset by favorable conditions in the region to the tropical Atlantic Basin.
The new model increases the preparation time
“With climate change, the data and advice NOAA provides to emergency managers and stakeholders to support decision-making before, during and after a hurricane has never been more important,” said NOAA Administrator, Rick Spinrad.
“To that end, this year a new hurricane forecast model was developed and expand the solar forecast from five to seven days, which will provide emergency managers and communities as well more time to prepare for the storm.”
