At least 141million Nigerians are expected to be living in poverty this year, according to PwC’s Nigeria Economic Outlook 2026.
The report titled: “Turning macroeconomic stability into sustainable growth,” projected deteriorating poverty levels of about 62% of the population in the year preceding the election year 2027.
The report shows that despite recent policy adjustments aimed at economic stabilisation, weak real income growth and elevated living costs are likely to push more households into poverty over the next two years.
PwC estimates that Nigeria’s poverty rate will rise to 62% by 2026, reflecting the combined effects of sluggish income growth and persistent inflationary pressures.
According to the report, most Nigerians are unlikely to experience income increases that meaningfully offset rising costs, especially in the short term.
“Poverty is projected to rise to 62% (141 million people) by 2026, reflecting weak real income growth and lingering inflation effects,” PwC noted.
While inflation may gradually moderate, PwC notes that the underlying cost structure of the economy suggests that affordability gains for households will remain limited.
A major contributor to worsening poverty, PwC explains, is the consumption pattern of low-income households.
Food accounts for up to 70% of total consumption among poorer Nigerians, leaving them highly exposed to food price increases.
With food inflation remaining elevated, these households are disproportionately affected by price shocks.
The firm added that even if headline inflation eases slightly, energy costs, logistics expenses, and exchange rate pass-through effects will continue to keep food and essential goods prices high.
According to experts, rising poverty levels pose significant risks to Nigeria’s economic stability and growth prospects.
A larger share of the population struggling to meet basic needs could weaken domestic consumption, limit productivity gains, and strain public finances.
According to PwC, without strong job creation, productivity improvements, and effective social protection, efforts to reduce poverty may remain out of reach.
In 2025, PwC reported that rising inflation, interest rates, and naira depreciation could push 13 million more Nigerians below the national poverty line.
Therefore PwC recommended a multi-pronged response, including sustained macroeconomic stability, food supply reforms, and increased investment in agriculture and logistics.
What World Bank said
Last year, the World Bank Nigeria Development Update report showed that the country’s long-running struggle with mass poverty could ease slightly in 2027, marking the first improvement in nearly a decade.
The multilateral lender projected that the poverty rate will peak at 62% in 2026—equivalent to about 141 million people—before dipping to 61% in 2027, or roughly 140 million Nigerians.
For millions, especially in rural and northern regions, prospects of relief remain distant, as food inflation, structural inequality, and weak social protection systems continue to deepen hardship.
“Still timid growth and remaining inflationary pressure, particularly from food prices, are expected to further push poverty up. The poverty rate is projected to reach 62% in 2026 before stabilising and slightly reducing to 61% in 2027,” the report said.
The data show a dramatic worsening of poverty over the past half-decade.
In 2018/19, the Nigeria Living Standards Survey estimated poverty at 40%, or 81 million people. By 2022/23, that figure had surged to 56%, or 113 million Nigerians.
This escalation coincided with falling consumption, weak growth, and soaring inflation. Between 2019 and 2023, average consumption per person fell by nearly 7%, with urban households hit hardest.
“Between 2019 and 2023, average consumption fell by 6.7%, especially in urban areas, while poverty rose from 40% (81 million people) to a projected 61% (139 million people) by 2025, with three-quarters of the increase occurring before 2023,” the World Bank said.
By 2025, an estimated 139 million Nigerians were living below the poverty line. The World Bank expects a further rise to 62% in 2026 before a modest decline the following year—the first predicted reversal in nearly a decade.
But the Presidency had disputed the figures.
The Special Adviser on Media and Public Communication, Sunday Dare, said on social media X, formerly Twitter, that the statistics were “unrealistic” and should be “properly contextualised” within global poverty measurement frameworks.
Daily Trust
