Alarm bells have been rung at the UN agency mainly because of the “unprecedented high” in sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic.
“The first week of July… can be considered as the hottest period or the hottest week ever recorded”, with the global temperature close to 17.24 degrees Celsius on 7 July, Omar Baddour, Chief of the Observatory -day in WMO.
Unpredictability is the new normal
The WMO expert added that daily June temperatures in the North Atlantic were “very high” compared to normal readings, while Antarctic sea ice levels reached their lowest level for June since satellite observations began.
At a staggering 17 per cent below average, this year’s readings beat the June 2022 record by a substantial margin and represent a “really dramatic drop in sea ice extent in Antarctica” – some 2.6 kilometers of sea ice has get lost.
Michael Sparrow, Head of the WMO’s Global Climate Research Programme, expressed that it was “absolutely unexpected” to see such a reduction in sea ice around the Antarctic.
“The Antarctic region is often thought to be stable; it is much colder than the Arctic. We’re used to seeing these big declines in sea ice in the Arctic, but not in the Antarctic.”
A summer sun
Beyond Antarctica, the UN agency warned that a “warming wave” will also affect fisheries distribution and marine ecosystems, with knock-on effects on climate.
It’s not just the ocean temperature, but the entire ocean that’s warming and absorbing energy that will be there for hundreds of years, WMO explained.
“When you have a typhoon of cities, everything is affected in the beaches, including fish, but also inland,” said Mr. Baddour. “With heavy rainfall that can lead to casualties, displacement of residents, etc. So, if we say it’s a big change, that also means an incredible possibility of extreme weather and climate events.”
El Niño effect
Last week, the WMO announced the beginning of El Niño, characterized by the warming of the Pacific Ocean. Combined with the human-induced greenhouse gas effect, the weather pattern is expected to make one of the next five years the warmest on record.
WMO officials told reporters in Geneva that “we are in an uncharted territory, and we can expect more records to fall as El Niño develops further”, with effects extending to 2024.
“In an El Niño year, you get higher temperatures in the atmosphere as well because heat moves from the oceans to the air,” Mr Sparrow said.
“We’re actually at the beginning of that process, so El Niño doesn’t have much of an impact as it gets to later in the year. So, we’re seeing these high temperatures in the North Atlantic…despite the fact that El Niño hasn’t gone away yet.”
According to Mr. Baddour of WMO, the warmest year is expected to be after-2023, when El Niño is expected to live. A record year in 2024 is possible, if the strength of El Niño continues to develop in line with forecasts.
