-By Tayo Oyekanmi
One definition of Politics that caught my fancy during my introductory class to Political Science at Onabanjo University-Ago Iwoye was that of Harold Lasswell who opined that Politics is WHO get WHAT, WHEN and HOW. As 2027 approaches, the race of who takes over from Governor Dapo Abiodun is already gathering momentum as such Harold Lasswell’s definition comes handy. Clandestine meetings is ongoing just as consultations.
Communique is been issued just like convert Billboards with political messages. As of now, the issue of WHAT and WHEN as alluded to by Harold Lasswell is a settled case in our context. The Governorship captures the WHAT while 2027 answered the WHEN question. The real bone of contention is WHO and HOW the contest will be settled.
Lately, there have been murmuring and insinuation about the interest of former Senator Iyabo Obasanjo. She was once a former Commissioner before her Senatorial position. She thereafter went on self imposed exile for sundry reasons. But the question would be where is her political base? On which platform will she be contesting from? APC is closed case putting everything into consideration even with Baba Obasanjo no love lost relationship with the current leadership of Nigeria. Ditto for the PDP option which is closely related to that of APC as long as Ladi Adebutu remains the political generalissimo of that platform. The ADC option can be alluring and inviting with Sen Iyabo Obasanjo contact and network with the David Mark leadership of ADC. Jimi Lawal can easily be sacrificed for her. But beyond the name of Iyabo Obasanjo, it’s difficult to see any relationship with the populace that can swing the pendulum to her corner electorally in Ogun State.
Aside the fact that Hon Ladi Adebutu Governorship aspiration is highly reprehensible, it is also morally wrong and repugnant. Yes, Hon Ladi Adebutu will most assuredly picked the PDP ticket. But the ticket will most likely become worthless irrespective of the goodness of Baba Kessington Adebutu, a man highly revered across the land. Ladi Adebutu’s greatest albatross will be his coming from the same town and local government with the incumbent governor Dapo Abiodun. Ladi Adebutu will always be a factor particularly in Remo axis as long as Baba Ijebu is around. But changing of political base can’t change the reality of reasoning of Ogun people especially when a whole race of people and senatorial district has not even mounted the Governorship thrown since the inception of the State in 1976. It’s a matter of months for Ogun State to clock 50 years. One town can’t potentially rule Ogun State for 16 unbroken years where others will be bystanders. It will be unthinkable.
For Alhaji Sarafa Tunji Isola, a former Local Government Chairman, former Secretary to the State Government, Former Minister and Former Ambassador to the United Kingdom, his Governorship aspiration is even more complicated than that of many aspirants at the moment beyond the surface. At deeper probing, he might profess to be in APC but he doesn’t really “belong”. He can’t even dictate what happens in his Abeokuta North Local Government Area of APC. Alhaji Sarafa is substantially at sea with his aspiration. His divisive tactics and utterances won’t help any better. It’s difficult to see HOW the Governorship pendulum will swing to his side either by consensus, direct or indirect primary.
From Ogun West, Hon Gboyega Nasir Isiaka is still been rumoured to be interested in the Governorship seat. Not long ago, a communique was issued at the end of a meeting of the BELIEVERS in Ogun West personally hosted by the Hon at Ilaro. The communique urged members to go back home for more consultation because GNI is still needed at higher office from the current position of House of Representative. What is the higher office in question? Senatorial or Governorship? It will then be better to wait until one hear from the horses mouth the exact aspiration rather than jumping the gun.
But one thing is sacrosanct in Ogun West today, the zone will not be contesting on the basis of sloganeering attach to certain emotional gamesmanship of Ogun West agenda. So also the contest won’t be for experiment and misadventures again. Of course the moral burden of Ogun West agitation won’t go extinct until justice and fairness is observed. Ogun West has now seen a luminous ray of light that is shining across the State. A hope against the dark tunnel of the time past. Sen Solomon Olamilekan Adeola Yayi has helped in bringing about this new political order and psychological reinforcement. Sen Yayi will run on the basis of record of success against any aspirant. Aside his performance, his decency, comportment and deep relationship with stakeholders across party divides that has endeared him to the populace across the State, the constellation of stars are coalescing in his favour politically at the moment.
Interestingly, nearly all the aspirants within the fold of APC are either joiners or returnees except Senator Yayi. He is the only foundation member who is potentially in the race across the State. That should count for something. Could that be the reason he is regarded as a political virtuoso in Ogun State today and beyond? Of course, he is impacting the society positively. There is possiblity of political twists and turns before and during the nomination process alluding to HOW of Harold Lasswell. But Yayi foothold, deep affection and mutual relationship with the rank and file of APC leadership structure across Ogun State is second to none. His name is on every politically conscious lips in Ogun State and beyond. Commoners are hailing him everywhere he steps. Power brokers are now labeling him as “In-Coming”. For now, the pendulum appears to be swinging in Sen Yayi’s favour.
